Soldier Prediction Markets Insider Case Tests US Prosecution, Bloomberg Law
November 02, 2026Partners Stacie Hartman and Robert A. Schwartz spoke with Bloomberg Law about the legal implications of a federal judge’s decision allowing criminal charges to proceed against a US soldier accused of using classified government information to profit from prediction market trades.
Stacie emphasized that prosecutors may still pursue wire fraud charges regardless of how the contracts are classified. “If these instruments were found by the court not to be within the scope of the Commodity Exchange Act, whether that’s exclusively or otherwise, the Department of Justice still has the wire fraud count,” she said.
Rob noted that the judge’s decision to leave the classification of prediction market contracts to a jury follows an approach used in securities cases. “If it’s disputed whether an instrument is a security, it’s a question for the jury with instructions,” he said.
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